NEW TECH FOODS

A new study by the James Hutton Institute and Norway’s Ruralis Institute for Rural and Regional Research has found that beef, lamb, milk and eggs are more exposed to market competition from lab-grown protein alternatives than pork and chicken.

The research, funded by the Research Council of Norway, modelled the potential socio-economic impacts of cultivated proteins and a carbon tax on Norway’s food sector. It is believed to be the first study of its kind.

Researchers examined two scenarios – one with a carbon tax and one without – and assessed how the introduction of cultivated proteins could affect conventional livestock sectors and emissions. The findings suggest that beef, lamb, milk and egg production are more likely to lose market share to lab-grown products in both scenarios, while pork and chicken, which are associated with lower greenhouse gas emissions, would be more resilient.

The study found that adding a carbon tax caused high-emission products to lose market share more quickly. It also assumed that consumers would largely see cultivated and conventional proteins as substitutes, with price being the main factor influencing their choice.

Nick Roxburgh, a social systems simulation modeller at the Hutton, said: “While there are still plenty of uncertainties here – such as whether technologies will ever improve to the point where cultivated proteins are commercially viable – this study suggests that sheep and cattle rearing could be most vulnerable to competition, especially if a carbon tax is introduced. We would expect this to be true in the UK as well as in Norway."

“Given the potential for disruption, it will be important to plan carefully for the possible impacts of cultivated proteins on livestock farming and rural livelihoods.”